Grombles

Here we go again. The polls unanimously predicted a victory for Clinton, and we all know what happened. The polls also unanimously predicted that Britain would remain in the EU, but they were wrong there too. Only months earlier the UK polls predicted every sort of party combination to form a government, except for the one that won. Why do polls get it completely wrong, especially when they're unanimously predicting a close result? Perhaps it's because of the Observer Effect (sometimes confused with the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle). Simply put, it states that by measuring something, you can affect it. In the case of opinion polls, this is what happens: The polls all predict a close result If the person or party you like is losing , you become more likely to vote because you can make difference If the person or party you like is winning , you become less likely to vote because you don't need to There's a sweet spot for this effect. If the polls are predicti...