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Brexit. It might actually work out.

I promised myself I wouldn't bleat any more about Brexit. But my country has gone stark staring mad, we're tripping over the corpses of political leaders, and I received this excellent summary of the current state of play:

So, let me get this straight... the leader of the opposition campaigned to stay but secretly wanted to leave, so his party held a non-binding vote to shame him into resigning so someone else could lead the campaign to ignore the result of the non-binding referendum which many people now think was just angry people trying to shame politicians into seeing they'd all done nothing to help them.

Meanwhile, the man who campaigned to leave because he hoped losing would help him win the leadership of his party, accidentally won and ruined any chance of leading because the man who thought he couldn't lose, did - but resigned before actually doing the thing the vote had been about. The man who'd always thought he'd lead next, campaigned so badly that everyone thought he was lying when he said the economy would crash - and he was, but it did, but he's not resigned, but, like the man who lost and the man who won, also now can't become leader. Which means the woman who quietly campaigned to stay but always said she wanted to leave is likely to become leader instead.

Which means she holds the same view as the leader of the opposition but for opposite reasons, but her party's view of this view is the opposite of the opposition's. And the opposition aren't yet opposing anything because the leader isn't listening to his party, who aren't listening to the country, who aren't listening to experts or possibly paying that much attention at all. However, none of their opponents actually want to be the one to do the thing that the vote was about, so there's not yet anything actually on the table to oppose anyway. And if no one ever does do the thing that most people asked them to do, it will be undemocratic and if anyone ever does do it, it will be unlawful.

Is all of this perfectly clear ?

And now the person who started the whole thing has resigned because he’s deeply unpopular after the majority of the country finally agreed with him. But he had to leave his party because none of them have a clue what to do other than say pathetically naive things like ‘we’ll sell more to the rest of the world’. As if we haven't been trying to do that anyway. And how on earth would the UK be more attractive outside the EU than it is as the Gateway to Europe?

Which is why all this mess was totally predictable and only ever going to get worse as no-one has a clue how to proceed from here. In the meantime every business and foreign state outside the UK is booking flights to all our competitors to find more sensible long term deals in beckoning countries that do know where the fuck they're going. 

There has to be certainty. Brexit will never achieve certainty. It's far too complicated to unravel and reconstruct in a way that suits us and them (the whole world) equally. I voted Remain because I wasn't prepared to cross my fingers that (all) the experts who do understand the issues, might be wrong. It would seem I'm far less intelligent than 52% of our electorate who clearly do understand the complexity and were prepared to take or ignore the risks. (There should never have been a referendum asking such a complex question).

I don’t care how positive we’re all meant to try to be now, we’re in a fool’s paradise with no way out except crawling back to the EU.... which might actually happen if we never serve notice under Article 50. 

A large law firm, Mishcon de Reya, is taking legal action to prevent the Prime Minister from serving notice under Article 50 without an Act of Parliament to sanction it. If they are successful (and M de R are rarely not), then all MPs, including the Scots and N Irish (where voting was heavily in favour of Remaining), will have to vote on whether to sanction the next PM to serve that notice. Doing so without an Act of Parliament might lead to impeachment for treason. Since only around 150 out of the 650 MPs professed to voting Leave, and ALL the parties, except 1 MP representing UKIP, declared they support Remain, it's highly unlikely MPs with any conscience will change their mind. Each would argue that their constituents had charged them with safeguarding their best interests - and since a vote to Leave has already resulted in a collapse of our currency, political chaos and absolutely no plan emerging on how to leave (closed borders + free trade? Nope), they might reasonably claim that they've looked over the cliff, and there's no parachute or cushion. BUT rather than vote against the wishes (not instructions - a referendum is not legally binding) of their electorate, they have no option but to resign and force a general election. We might also see that constituencies that voted Leave were heavily for Leave whereas Remainers were much more evenly spread around the country. And there is some evidence that the people who don't normally vote in general elections, but who voted in the referendum (an additional 2.8m), voted for Leave. Perhaps they will return to staying at home next time. They'll also realise they can't win against the establishment. And don't forget the 2m ex-pats who weren't allowed to vote in the referendum (why not?!).

Now this is where it gets really interesting. There is only one party who supports Brexit. UKIP. But it only has one MP and now it's founder and leader, the puffed up, pompous, soundbiter Nigel Farage, has also resigned (to the cheer of his only MP). So there will be no credible Leave option offered to the voters. Every party will be saying 'don't be stupid - looked what just happened. It's only going to get much worse, and the poorest will suffer most'. Or hopefully they will also start saying 'look at what we're leaving. Isn't it great'. Being positive might work better next time Mr Osborne, don't you think?

The British public don't bother much with general elections. They either loathe all politicians (because it's fashionable to so, but can't be arsed to do it themselves), can't be bothered (what's on tele?), or are party faithfuls. With no Brexit plan, their holidays now costing 30% more, and only independent weirdos standing on a Leave ticket, I'm betting that a snap general election will restore balance and sense to the country, and to the world... until, that is, The Donald is handed the button.


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