Update: OK, so I was wrong.... We ended up with the largest Tory majority since Margaret Thatcher. In fact I got it badly wrong. Interestingly more people voted for Remain supporting parties than Leave, but our voting system distorts who gets into power.
However, the points I make below are still valid even if I wrongly predicted how strongly brainwashed the British public had become about being able to 'do a deal with the EU... and therefore expecting their newly elected leader, Boris Johnson, to "get on with it".
He won't, because he can't!
Free Trade Agreement for goods and services means we forever follow the EU's rules
We can't agree to do that (it's why we left)
So no FTA
[My original post starts here]
On the day of the Brexit referendum in 2016, I realised I'd had enough of being a Tory party member. Indeed I had, until that day, been a donor to party funds, such is my fear of socialists destroying yet another economy by promising illusory prosperity for all, controlled by mystically wise politicians rather than market forces and private risk capital. But on 23rd June 2016, I realised I was supporting an arrogant, xenophobic, narrow-minded bunch of deluded fools who no longer represented my vision of the UK as an open-minded, inclusive and fair democracy... where democracy doesn't mean asking its citizens to decide complex questions, but relies on their elected representatives to do it.
But now I've got a problem. I strongly believe that the strong should help the weak. And the worst way to achieve this is to make the strong weaker. Abraham Lincoln said "You don't make the poor rich by making the rich poor." So my natural home is right of centre where well regulated wealth creation is celebrated and encouraged. I love creating jobs that create more jobs. Just betting on something that might increase in value does not turn me on. It's simply gambling and has nothing to do with creating social value.
But I'm not a saint. I want my family to also benefit from this accumulation of wealth, and I want to invest some of my wealth in helping others to do the same - partly for my own benefit, partly for society's. Making money with no effort and at little risk is not only ungratifying, it is also divisive and hugely unfair to people who will never have the opportunity to do the same. I want to live in a country where everyone has an equal opportunity to earn wealth and create jobs - which means using taxes to fund the provision of opportunities. It also means ensuring that the weakest and most vulnerable in our society are looked after by the strongest - who if weakened, will be able to offer less. And using taxes rather than borrowing money, means we don't pass on the cost to our children.
Terrifyingly, socialist governments ALWAYS borrow more than they earn because politicians know nothing about earning wealth. Only taking and spending it. Encourage wealth creators to create more (including jobs), and then tax them. Don't tax them and then pray they'll hang around for more pain. It's incredibly simple to up-sticks and move your business somewhere less painful, as Dyson did and the FAANGS assuredly will. Tesla has already decided to design and build his electric cars in Germany despite originally favouring the UK.
My dilemma is shared by every former Tory, EU Remainer I know, because:-
- Leaving the EU will be hugely damaging to the UK
- An extreme socialist government will damage it even more
- The UK will break up if a Labour/SNP coalition form a government
This 2019 General Election offers me a starkly impossible choice of extreme socialism - verging on what I understand to be communism - and xenophobic nationalism. There is no middle ground of entrepreneurial encouragement with an inclusive global, collaborative outlook. Or in other words, the Tories I used to believe in, coupled with a firm reversal of Brexit... and what a total mess that (predictably) turned into and will continue to be for decades to come.
And in case you are in any doubt as to how our "Deal" with the EU will work out for the UK (or what's left of it after Scotland has told England where to stick its Union Jack), it won't. Why on Earth would 27 nations who have been told we want to compete with them do anything other than make life as hard for us as they possibly can? Their job is to protect the interests of 500 million citizens living in member nations - which means not helping competitors to take away jobs and investment.
So why do I believe the Labour party will win the election on December 12th?
- The polls are predicting a narrow Tory win - the latest is showing 41% Conservative, 30% Labour, 15% Lib Dem, 7% Independence parties, 5% Brexit, and 3% Green. The UK election system means that if this spread is the same in every constituency, the Conservatives (who are supporters of Brexit) will win every seat. But thanks to our 'first-past-the-post' constituency system, the reality is that they have very strong support in the countryside and South England, but virtually none in large cities and outside England. So most of their 41% are concentrated in relatively few seats. Which is one of the reasons that the polls are ALWAYS wrong when it comes to predicting election results, especially when they are predicting a close one. They called the last 2 UK elections wrong. They called the EU referendum wrong. They even got the US presidential election wrong. Read why here.
- There are two types of Conservatives: Remainers and Leavers. There are large numbers of former Tory voters, including myself, who are convinced that we should remain in the EU. Everyone I know (including my whole family) who believe Brexit is and will continue to be a dreadful disaster for the UK (and the EU) cannot vote for the people who got us into this mess and who want to thrust us deeper into it. THEY'RE ASKING US TO EAT POO AND LIKE THE TASTE. So not only will we never cave in to believe Brexit is a good idea, we certainly won't when the party is led by the chief buffoon who said it would be a "Titanic success" (ironically it's the most believable thing he's said). So when asked by polls if we support Conservative values (as opposed to letting communists rule the country), we're bound to say 'of course we do'. Hence the 41%. But when asked if we want to "Get Brexit Done" (the motto of the Conservatives at this election) - fuck no! We'll either go LibDem (who are also worryingly a long way out to the left - but not as bat-shit crazy as the Venezuela emulators), or not vote. Either way, the Tories will lose a huge number of Remainer votes.
- The UK is equally split between Leavers and Remainers. BUT, the parties aren't. If you add all the Leave parties in this recent poll, you get 46% of the electorate - so if they also get 46% of the seats, no amount of bargaining to form a coalition government will give them a majority to form a government. However, the Remainers will have 54% of the vote. And in order to ensure at least a 2nd referendum, they can form a coalition giving them an effective majority. Would the smaller parties lie down with Comrade Corbyn in order to reverse Brexit? Probably... especially if some of his more bonkers objectives are put on back burners and he promises things like a second independence referendum for the Scots - who see an independent Scotland as the only way to escape an English Labour government AND, once they are an independent country, rejoin the EU. Double result!
- Labour, and in particular Jeremy Corbyn have been accused of being antisemitic. There are only 263,000 Jews in the UK, so even if every one of them votes Conservative as a result, they won't make a difference to who wins. The point is whether Labour supporters believe Corbyn and Labour are antisemitic, and, far more worryingly, whether the tirade of accusations, most notoriously during the election campaign by the Chief Rabbi who is mates with Johnson, will dissuade Labour supporters to vote Tory. Labour supporters are either actually antisemitic, in which case the Chief Rabbi will not endear himself to them, or they're not and his words will once again not endear himself to them. One way or another, accusations of antisemitism by people who don't like Labour will strengthen support for the party.
Bye bye Scotland. Bye bye wealth creators. Bye bye the pound. Bye bye whatever little international credibility we had left. And hello a second EU referendum where Remain will win (who'd vote for this mess all over again?) and the remains of the UK will spiral into vassalage to our new found commie chums in China. Pass me that bottle of Scotch before I have to import some more.